Nickel Prices Are Moving Again and the Timing Matters

Source: Trading Economics nickel price data; screenshot taken January 9th 2026

Nickel prices have staged a sharp recovery entering 2026, reversing months of weakness and signaling a shift in market sentiment. After trading in a narrow band for much of 2025, the metal has broken higher as supply discipline, cost pressures, and renewed industrial demand converge.

On December 16, 2025, nickel prices touched a recent low of approximately US$14,255 per tonne. Since May 2025, prices had largely averaged around US$15,000 per tonne, reflecting a market weighed down by oversupply concerns and cautious EV sentiment. In early January, that narrative began to change. On January 6, 2026, nickel reached approximately US$18,533 per tonne, marking a material move higher in a short period of time. Prices have since retraced modestly, dipping to around US$17,000 per tonne on January 8 before stabilizing near US$17,600 per tonne as of Friday, January 9. Even with this pullback, nickel remains well above its 2025 trading range, reinforcing the view that the market is re-pricing rather than experiencing a short-lived spike. 

While short-term price movements are often driven by technical factors, the recent strength in nickel reflects deeper fundamentals that are increasingly difficult to ignore.

Source: Trading Economics nickel price data

Nickel’s Dual Demand Base Supports Recoveries

Unlike other battery metals, nickel demand is not dependent on a single end market. Approximately 65% of global nickel consumption is tied to stainless steel, which continues to provide steady, base-load demand, particularly across Asia. Battery demand, while smaller today at roughly 16–17%, adds a second growth layer rather than replacing the first.

This dual demand structure allows nickel price recoveries to accelerate quickly once sentiment turns, as industrial consumption absorbs supply while battery demand compounds on top.

Why Nickel Is Different From Other Battery Metals

Nickel occupies a unique position among critical minerals. Unlike lithium or cobalt, nickel demand is anchored by stainless steel, which still accounts for roughly two-thirds of global consumption. This base-load industrial demand provides resilience during periods of EV volatility.

At the same time, batteries remain a powerful second driver. As high-nickel chemistries continue to dominate long-range EV applications, incremental demand growth compounds on top of an already large industrial foundation.

This dual-use dynamic means nickel price recoveries can accelerate quickly once sentiment shifts.

Source: International Nickel Study Group (INSG), industry demand breakdowns

Indonesia’s Role in the Nickel Price Equation

Indonesia now produces more than half of the world’s nickel and controls the majority of supply growth. That concentration gives the country outsized influence on global pricing dynamics.

Recent policy clarity, continued downstream investment, and tighter scrutiny on permitting and compliance have all contributed to a more disciplined operating environment. As a result, the assumption of unlimited, frictionless supply growth is being re-evaluated by the market.

When the marginal tonne becomes harder to deliver, prices respond.

Source: Reuters, MINING.com, Macquarie nickel market analysis

Capital Markets Pay Attention to Inflection Points

Historically, rising nickel prices have coincided with renewed interest from institutional investors, strategic buyers, and public markets. Price momentum improves project economics, expands financing options, and sharpens the focus on companies with near-term production, operating leverage, and scale pathways.

For investors, timing matters. Price inflection points often precede broader capital rotation back into the sector. As nickel reasserts itself as both an industrial and strategic metal, the market is beginning to look ahead rather than backward.

Positioning Matters More Than Ever

In a rising price environment, the market tends to reward companies that combine:

• Low-cost operations

• Proximity to downstream demand

• Transparent governance

• Clear paths to scale

Nickel price strength does not benefit all participants equally. It amplifies the advantages of operators already positioned in the right jurisdictions, with the right structures, at the right point in the cycle.

Why This Matters for Nusa Nickel

Nusa Nickel operates at the intersection of low-cost production, near-term cash flow, and direct exposure to Indonesia’s nickel ecosystem. With active operations and an Indonesian trader licence in place, the company is positioned to capture upside from both price appreciation and improved market dynamics.

In a rising price environment, operators with proximity to smelters, reliable logistics, and compliance credibility tend to outperform marginal producers.

Conclusion

The recent move in nickel prices is more than a technical bounce. It reflects a broader reassessment of supply discipline, industrial demand, and the strategic importance of nickel in a changing global economy.

As markets look ahead to 2025 and beyond, nickel is once again asserting itself as a metal that matters, not just for batteries, but for the foundations of modern industry.